The ESPERTA forecast model for moderate-to-extreme solar proton events.

Laurenza M., Alberti T., Cliver E. W., Storini M., Consolini G., Lepreti F.
  Martedì 12/09   09:00 - 13:00   Aula A210   IV - Geofisica e fisica dell'ambiente
The ESPERTA (Empirical model for Solar Proton Event Real Time Alert) model was developed to predict solar proton events (SPEs), which constitute a hazardous condition in the terrestrial environment. Here we evaluate the ESPERTA model over the $>10$ MeV SPEs occurred in the period 1995--2014. An improved performance is found for the prediction of the largest events (peak flux $\ge 100$ pfu), which produce biological and space operations impacts and increased effects on HF propagation in the terrestrial polar regions. We obtain a Probability of Detection of 79% with a False Alarm Rate of 23% and a median warning time of $\sim 1.5$ h.