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The physical and mathematical modelling of the spatial and temporal evolution of lava flows.

Del Negro C., Bilotta G., Cappello A., Ganci G., Herault A., Zago V.
  Venerdì 15/09   09:00 - 12:00   Aula A210   IV - Geofisica e fisica dell'ambiente
The MAGFLOW model for lava flow simulations is based on the cellular automaton (CA) approach, and uses a physical model for the thermal and rheological evolution of the flowing lava. We discuss the potential of MAGFLOW to improve our understanding of the dynamics of lava flow emplacement and our ability to assess lava flow hazards. Sensitivity analysis of the input parameters controlling the evolution function of the automaton demonstrates that water content and solidus temperatures are the parameters to which MAGFLOW is most sensitive. Additional tests also indicate that temporal changes in effusion rate strongly influence the accuracy of the predictive modelling of lava flow paths.